Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 26,019
2 Arizona 24,661
3 Florida 22,901
4 New York 21,669
5 New Jersey 20,770
6 Mississippi 20,538
7 Alabama 18,898
8 Rhode Island 18,167
9 South Carolina 18,053
10 District of Columbia 17,446
11 Massachusetts 17,215
12 Georgia 16,907
13 Nevada 16,634
14 Texas 15,929
15 Tennessee 15,799
16 Delaware 15,460
17 Maryland 15,168
18 Arkansas 14,777
19 Illinois 14,618
20 Iowa 14,549
21 Connecticut 14,041
22 Nebraska 13,935
23 California 13,217
24 Utah 12,966
25 Idaho 12,220
26 North Carolina 12,090
27 Virginia 10,908
28 Indiana 10,414
29 Wisconsin 10,214
30 South Dakota 10,196
31 New Mexico 10,077
32 Minnesota 10,036
33 Kansas 10,022
34 Oklahoma 9,751
35 Pennsylvania 9,290
36 Michigan 9,262
37 North Dakota 8,908
38 Missouri 8,741
39 Colorado 8,355
40 Ohio 8,038
41 Washington 8,012
42 Kentucky 7,274
43 Puerto Rico 5,883
44 Alaska 5,552
45 Wyoming 4,920
46 New Hampshire 4,898
47 Oregon 4,598
48 Montana 3,975
49 West Virginia 3,890
50 Maine 2,953
51 Vermont 2,286
52 Hawaii 1,712

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Alabama 335
2 Nevada 334
3 Florida 333
4 Louisiana 327
5 Mississippi 266
6 Georgia 256
7 South Carolina 254
8 Arizona 247
9 Tennessee 232
10 Texas 232
11 Arkansas 230
12 Puerto Rico 209
13 Idaho 183
14 Oklahoma 179
15 Alaska 176
16 California 168
17 Maryland 154
18 Missouri 141
19 Wisconsin 140
20 North Carolina 138
21 North Dakota 138
22 Utah 137
23 Nebraska 128
24 Virginia 125
25 Kansas 123
26 Minnesota 123
27 Iowa 121
28 Illinois 119
29 Indiana 114
30 Kentucky 113
31 Washington 100
32 South Dakota 96
33 Delaware 91
34 District of Columbia 88
35 Montana 84
36 New Mexico 84
37 Hawaii 79
38 Ohio 79
39 Rhode Island 70
40 Wyoming 70
41 Oregon 69
42 Colorado 67
43 West Virginia 61
44 Michigan 58
45 Pennsylvania 55
46 Massachusetts 50
47 New Jersey 35
48 New York 31
49 Connecticut 23
50 New Hampshire 18
51 Maine 14
52 Vermont 6

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,784
2 New York 1,666
3 Massachusetts 1,254
4 Connecticut 1,244
5 Rhode Island 953
6 Louisiana 865
7 District of Columbia 830
8 Michigan 647
9 Illinois 609
10 Delaware 600
11 Maryland 582
12 Mississippi 574
13 Pennsylvania 568
14 Arizona 520
15 Indiana 442
16 Georgia 354
17 South Carolina 348
18 Alabama 333
19 Florida 333
20 Colorado 321
21 New Mexico 312
22 New Hampshire 306
23 Ohio 302
24 Minnesota 293
25 Iowa 280
26 Nevada 274
27 Texas 265
28 Virginia 259
29 California 240
30 Washington 221
31 Missouri 214
32 North Carolina 191
33 Nebraska 172
34 Kentucky 170
35 Wisconsin 164
36 Arkansas 157
37 Tennessee 157
38 South Dakota 152
39 North Dakota 143
40 Oklahoma 139
41 Kansas 125
42 Idaho 113
43 Utah 98
44 Maine 92
45 Vermont 91
46 Oregon 79
47 Puerto Rico 72
48 West Virginia 65
49 Montana 59
50 Wyoming 46
51 Alaska 31
52 Hawaii 17

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Louisiana 5
2 Mississippi 5
3 South Carolina 5
4 Arizona 4
5 Florida 4
6 Texas 4
7 Alabama 3
8 Arkansas 2
9 California 2
10 Georgia 2
11 New Mexico 2
12 North Carolina 2
13 Idaho 1
14 Iowa 1
15 Maryland 1
16 Massachusetts 1
17 Montana 1
18 Nevada 1
19 New Jersey 1
20 Ohio 1
21 Puerto Rico 1
22 South Dakota 1
23 Tennessee 1
24 Virginia 1
25 Washington 1
26 Alaska 0
27 Colorado 0
28 Connecticut 0
29 Delaware 0
30 District of Columbia 0
31 Hawaii 0
32 Illinois 0
33 Indiana 0
34 Kansas 0
35 Kentucky 0
36 Maine 0
37 Michigan 0
38 Minnesota 0
39 Missouri 0
40 Nebraska 0
41 New Hampshire 0
42 New York 0
43 North Dakota 0
44 Oklahoma 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Pennsylvania 0
47 Rhode Island 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 139,312 1 99
Lake Tennessee 106,756 2 99
Lee Arkansas 100,485 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 94,927 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 91,063 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 31,362 120 96
Richland South Carolina 19,338 380 87
Orange California 11,907 861 72
York South Carolina 11,552 888 71
Pierce Washington 6,210 1622 48

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,020 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,517 3 99
Galax city Virginia 3,466 4 99
McKinley New Mexico 3,097 5 99
Richland South Carolina 339 658 79
Davidson Tennessee 291 759 75
Orange California 205 987 68
Pierce Washington 151 1215 61
York South Carolina 100 1498 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons